Mention the "R" word, and it can run shivers up the backs of contractors running on tight profit margins. But according to at least one organization that knows its way well around the construction forecasting business, 2008 looks like a year of slow but certain growth.

In the latest AEM outlook survey, growth in equipment purchased in the United States is expected to increase of 2.8 percent. For more specific growth areas, using equipment sales is one reliable measure of anticipated sector activity.

In 2008, the AEM is anticipating business for bituminous equipment to increase 1.0 percent. Bituminous equipment includes asphalt plants and pavers; cold planers; pneumatic, static and vibratory rollers; and soil stabilizers. Sales of concrete and aggregate equipment for 2008 are expected to grow 5.2 percent. Machines in this category include crushers; screens; feeders; conveyors; washing equipment; rock drills; concrete batch plants and pavers; concrete truck mixers; and dewatering screens.

For 2008, earthmoving equipment sales are expected to decline 1.7 percent for the United States. The earthmoving segment includes crawler and wheeled excavators; rear dump and articulated haulers; backhoe, crawler, wheel, compact, and skid-steer loaders; motor graders; crawler tractors; trenchers and ditchers; wheeled log skidders; horizontal directional drills; and scrapers.

Sales of lifting equipment are expected to increase 5.2 percent in the United States. Lifting equipment includes aerial work platforms; knuckle and telescopic boom truck cranes; all-terrain, hydraulic truck and rough-terrain cranes; lattice-boom cranes; rough-terrain and truck-mounted fork lifts; tower cranes; and telescopic handlers.

The light equipment business for 2008 is predicted to gain 3.7 percent for the United States. The light equipment market includes machines such as hydraulic and pneumatic breakers; vibratory plate compactors; concrete screeds, saws and vibrators; pumps and trowels; generators; light towers; towable mixers; contractor pumps; power buggies; vibratory walk-behind rollers; air compressors; lasers; core rigs; and truck-mounted air compressors.

For attachments and components, sales in 2008 are expected to grow by 4.9 percent in the United States, 5.6 percent for Canada and 8.9 percent for other worldwide markets. This category includes buckets; quick couplers; augers; demolition shears; pulverizers/crushers; electronic and hydraulic components; brake systems; saw blades; rippers and scarifiers; truck bodies; compactors; grapples; blades; rakes; forks; trenchers; snow blowers; powertrains; tires/wheels; and engines.

In the region, New York City continues to lead in terms of pure construction spending. Estimates exceed $25 billion for both 2008 and 2009. According to the New York Building Congress, spending is up across the board, including office construction, infrastructure improvements, new schools, expanded universities, and cultural institutions. Citywide nonresidential construction is forecasted to reach $9.5 billion in 2008 and $11.2 billion in 2009. An analysis of the data finds that New York City is defying the nationwide slump in housing construction. Residential spending in New York City is projected to climb to level down to approximately $5.2 billion in 2009.

The Building Congress projects capital spending, including investments in mass transit, public schools, roads, bridges, and other essential infrastructure, to reach $12.6 billion in 2008 and 2009. Construction employment, which reached 116,600 jobs in 2006, is projected to increase to 126,700 in 2008, and top 130,000 in 2009. This total represents about 4.5 jobs per million dollars spent, which is down from 10 jobs per million in 1998.

The outlook is particularly strong due to the ongoing rebuilding in Lower Manhattan. In addition to the Freedom Tower and the Goldman Sachs headquarters, three additional World Trade Center towers, each about as large as the Empire State building, are slated to begin construction in 2008 and continue through 2012. Activity is also expected to pick up soon on Manhattan's West Side, including the area around Penn Station and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority rail yards.

In the Hudson Valley, Stewart International Airport continues to hold a high place in the region's focus. Now that the airport is run by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (who also manage Kennedy, LaGuardia and Newark airports), capital investment to the tune of $500 million is in store for the facility. That is, now that the much-awaited $55-million I-84 access road to the airport was completed November 20.

Upstate, a handful of projects will keep building contractors busy. One of the most significant project will be Corning's new $300-million research and development facility, which broke ground in November.

In Buffalo, the $333-million Seneca Buffalo Creek casino is slated to be going strong in 2008, and completed by 2010. Included in the 9-acre site will be a 90,000-square-foot casino, a 22-story hotel and four restaurants. Also in Buffalo, a revised design plan for the renovation of the city's former Dulski building has been given the go-ahead. The $65-million plan gives the 15-story building a metal and tinted-blue glass exterior. Included in the renovation will be upscale condominiums and an Embassy Suites hotel.

A record total of $30.7 billion in public and private construction over the next two years, despite the troubled national economy and New Jersey's fiscal problems, was reported in early November at the annual Construction Forecast Seminar sponsored by the New Jersey Alliance for Action in Trenton. The figures represented the highest amount in the 23 years that the alliance has held the forecast seminars. The new totals were 5-percent higher than the then-record $29.2 billion projected last year.

In hailing the new record, Alliance President Philip K. Beachem said the construction industry is the leading generator of new state revenues and "is the best way to emerge from New Jersey's fiscal problems."

The breakdowns for the two year period were $14.1 billion for 2008 and $16.6 billion for 2009.

Leading the way in the private sector for planned construction over the next two years was New Jersey's Pharmaceutical and Medical Technology industry with $3.5 billion projected.

On the public side, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey was high with $3.7 billion.

An optimistic note for the future was sounded by Joseph Corbo, president of the Casino Association of NJ, which provided a figure of $2 billion for 2008 and 2009. However, Corbo stressed that this will be "the calm before the storm." He reported that casino construction will soar to $9 billion within the next three to four years.

Other major two-year construction estimates from the private sector were:

1. New Jersey Utilities, nearly $2.9 billion.
2. National Association of Industrial Office Properties, NJ Chapter, $2.2 billion.
3. Construction Roundtable of New Jersey, $766 million.

Among the major two-year construction estimates delivered by public sector representatives were:

1. New Jersey Healthcare Facilities Financing Authority, $1.7 billion.
2. New Jersey Department of Transportation, $1.45 billion.
3. New Jersey Environmental Infrastructure Trust, $1.4 billion.
4. New Jersey Turnpike Authority, $1.2 billion.

The cumulative total of construction planned for two years by New Jersey's County, State and Independent Colleges and Universities was $1.6 billion.

In Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation's Deputy Secretary for Highway Administration Richard Hogg says that some of the administration's top goals for 2008 are to improve bridges, delivery cost-effective timely projects, and enhance operations efficiency and security. Hogg made his comments at the Associated Pennsylvania Constructors annual meeting held November 18.

To improve the effectiveness of the monies spent, Hogg says the agency will be targeting major bridges over 500 feet in length. With 652 of them in the state, their combined square footage equals over one-third (34 percent) of the state's total bridge-deck area.

Also major to the commonwealth, after 50 years of planning, will be initial construction of the Intercounty Connector. A six-lane, 18-mile east-west connector between Pennsylvania and Maryland, the road will connect the I-270, I-370 and I-95/US-1 corridors. Five design-build projects will make up the effort, with the first $479 million awarded to a joint venture of Granite, Corman and Wagman.

In Delaware, one of the biggest challenges for 2008 will be the re-letting of the Indian River Bridge project. After settlement problems on the approaches has caused millions of dollars in losses and a need to redesign the new signature cable-stay bridge, the state is looking in possible damage claims against the design-build team.