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CM Index Bruised, Emerges In Positive Terrain

The CM Index ended this quarter at 2462.74, just 1.25 points, or 0.05 percent above its previous reading at the end of March.

By Margot Crabtree, Trade Trends -- Construction, 8/11/2008

Stocks struggled this session, often ending further south than they started, battered by high oil, uncertainty in the banking sector and continued weakness in the housing sector. As our trading session ended June 30, 2008, the Dow industrials clocked their worst June since the Great Depression and were down almost 20 percent from the record high of 14198.09 in October. It was the worst half for the Dow since 1970, when the U.S. was in a recession.

Despite the weakness, investors are eyeing the upcoming earnings session with a mixture of wariness and hope. The wild card always remains the consumer.

"With the Dow nearing bear market territory, it's going to keep investors on edge," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners Inc. in New York. "I think the economic data is going to indicate an economy that is not slipping into a full-blown recession, but one that is just limping along."

The Construction Magazine Index escaped the unraveling of the major markets, but just barely, and not without a great deal of volatility, as a quick look at the top gainers and losers reveals. The CM Index ended our session at 2462.74, just 1.25 points, or 0.05 percent, above its previous reading at the end of March. However, declining issues got the upper hand over advancing issues at a 19-to-11 count.

U.S. Steel skyrocketed ahead this quarter, up by a whopping 57.91 points, or 45.65 percent, despite lower first quarter earnings, as commodity price increases kept pushing the price of steel higher and higher. For its first quarter ended March 31, U.S. Steel had net income 14 percent below earnings in the previous year's quarter, down on softness in Europe and a decline in its tubular divisions. U.S. Steel earned $235 million, or $1.98 per share, from $273 million, or $2.30 per share, last year.

However, U.S. Steel beat Wall Street's expectations; analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected earnings of $1.81 per share on revenues of $5.09 billion. Sales for the quarter were up 38 percent, to $5.2 billion, attributed to the flat-rolled steel used in products like cars and appliances.

"It was a nice uptick from the fourth quarter, but not as good as we had hoped for," said Michelle Applebaum, of Michelle Applebaum Research. "We expected to see improved cost performance at their North American operations."

Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Liinamaa expected a strong performance from U.S. Steel for this quarter. "They're making good progress," Liinamaa said. "Business conditions are in good shape."

At session's end, Barclays Capital analyst Amrita Sen wrote in a note to clients that the climb was not over. "The recent surge in steel prices can in no sense be seen to have peaked, given the tightness in the scrap and raw material market," Sen wrote, citing infrastructure projects in China and India. U.S. Steel closed at 184.78, and was the top dollar and percentage gainer.

Shares of Daimler were down sharply after the company's first quarter slipped and came in below analysts' estimates. Daimler reported earnings of 1.3 billion euros ($2.03 billion), off 1.9 billion euros a year ago. Analysts from Dow Jones Newswires expected Daimler to earn 1.51 billion euros, or $2.4 billion for the quarter. Gains in the quarter were offset by $737.3 million in charges related to the 80-odd-percent divestiture of Chrysler. Daimler shed 23.88 points, or 27.91 percent, and was the top dollar loser.

Centex was hammered by a loss of almost $911 million this session, as sales fell 37 percent, and the company wrote down the value of unsold homes for its fiscal fourth quarter, ended March 31. Centex lost $7.34 per share, compared to net income of $198.9 million, or $1.65 per share, in the comparable year-ago quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were expecting a loss of $2.43 per share. Centex absorbed an impairment charge of $362 million in the lowered value of unsold homes, and the loss of $395 million in a sale of land. Centex slipped 10.84 points, or 44.77 percent, and was the top percentage loser. Centex ended at 13.37.

Fluor's first quarter stormed ahead by 63 percent and easily bypassed analysts' expectations as its first quarter bristled with new projects. Fluor reported earnings of $128 million, or $1.50 per share, versus earnings of $84.6 million, or $0.94 per share in the previous year's first quarter. Fluor was awarded $5.7 billion in new projects for the quarter, a 28-percent increase from last year's quarterly lineup. The new projects include $4.3 billion in the oil and gas sector. After its earnings report was released, Fluor announced a $1.8-billion contract to design and build a wind farm off the Suffolk coast of the U.K. Lehman Brothers analyst Andy Kaplowitz upped his price target on Fluor to $205, from $165. Fluor soared 44.92 points, or 31.82 percent, and closed at 186.08.

Exchange Ticker Symbol Company Name Price 6/30/2008 Price 6/31/2008 Net Change Percent Change 52-Week High 52-Week Low Shares Outstanding Market ($000) Capitalization
NYSE AKS AK Steel Holding Corp. 69.00 54.42 14.58 26.79% 73.07 27.09 112010 7728690
NYSE ASH Ashland, Inc. (APAC) 48.20 47.30 0.90 1.90% 68.99 39.82 62930 3033226
NYSE CAT Caterpillar, Inc. 73.82 78.29 -4.47 -5.71% 87.00 59.60 614770 45382321.4
NYSE CTX Centex Corp. 13.37 24.21 -10.84 -44.77% 44.22 13.51 123480 1650927.6
NYSE CVX Chevron Corp. 99.13 85.36 13.77 16.13% 104.63 76.40 2070000 205199100
NYSE CNH CNH Global NV 33.97 52.03 -18.06 -34.71% 70.00 33.52 237300 8061081
NYSE CMI Cummins, Inc. 65.52 46.82 18.70 39.94% 75.09 38.11 203120 13308422.4
NYSE DAI DaimlerChrysler AG (Freightliner) 61.67 85.55 -23.88 -27.91% 111.65 62.19 1000000 61670000
NYSE DE Deere and Co. 72.13 80.44 -8.31 -10.33% 94.89 56.96 430950 31084423.5
NYSE DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. 10.85 15.75 -4.90 -31.11% 20.75 9.78 315870 3427189.5
NYSE EXP Eagle Materials, Inc. 25.33 35.55 -10.22 -28.75% 52.16 25.61 43440 1100335.2
NYSE XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. 88.13 84.58 3.55 4.20% 96.12 77.55 5280000 465326400
NYSE FLR Fluor Corp. 186.08 141.16 44.92 31.82% 202.73 104.30 88700 16505296
NYSE GT Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 17.83 25.80 -7.97 -30.89% 36.90 17.62 240560 4289184.8
NYSE GVA Granite Construction Ltd. 31.53 32.71 -1.18 -3.61% 74.62 26.64 38280 1206968.4
NYSE HAL Halliburton Co. 53.07 39.33 13.74 34.94% 53.41 30.00 872370 46296675.9
NYSE IR Ingersoll-Rand Company Ltd. 37.43 44.58 -7.15 -16.04% 56.66 34.46 272890 10214272.7
NYSE KUB Kubota Corp. 35.79 31.15 4.64 14.90% 45.80 28.34 256120 9166534.8
NYSE MTW Manitowoc Company, Inc. 32.53 40.80 -8.27 -20.27% 51.49 30.07 130010 4229225.3
NYSE MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. 103.59 106.17 -2.58 -2.43% 165.97 95.02 41330 4281374.7
NYSE OSK Oshkosh Truck Corp. 20.69 36.28 -15.59 -42.97% 65.83 21.65 74520 1541818.8
NASD PCAR Paccar, Inc. 41.83 45.00 -3.17 -7.04% 65.75 41.14 365150 15274224.5
NYSE PHM Pulte Homes 9.63 14.55 -4.92 -33.81% 24.25 8.20 257380 2478569.4
NYSE SGR Shaw Group, Inc. 61.79 47.14 14.65 31.08% 77.30 40.12 82900 5122391
NYSE TEX Terex Corp. 51.37 62.50 -11.13 -17.81% 96.94 46.50 100900 5183233
NYSE WFC Wells Fargo & Co. 23.75 29.10 -5.35 -18.38% 37.99 23.62 3300000 78375000
NYSE X United States Steel Corp. 184.78 126.87 57.91 45.65% 196.00 74.41 117710 21750453.8
NASD RMIX US Concrete, Inc. 4.76 3.80 0.96 25.26% 9.05 2.14 39740 189162.4
NYSE USG USG Corp. 29.57 36.82 -7.25 -19.69% 50.13 29.59 99070 2929499.9
NYSE VMC Vulcan Materials Co. 59.78 66.40 -6.62 -9.97% 116.63 60.20 109440 6542323.2

Price 6/30/2008 Price 3/31/2008 Net Change Percent Change
Construction Index 2462.74 2461.49 1.25 0.05%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11350.01 12262.89 -912.88 -7.44%
S&P 500 Index 1280.00 1322.70 -42.70 -3.23%
NASDAQ Composite 2292.98 2279.10 13.88 0.61%
Top Gainers and Losers
$ Gainer United States Steel Corp. 57.91
$ Loser DaimlerChrysler AG (Freightliner) -23.88
% Gainer United States Steel Corp. 45.65%
% Loser Centex Corp. -44.77%
Advancers 11
Decliners 19
Source: Trade Trends, Inc., (509) 327-1279

Top Gainers and Losers $ or %
Top Dollar Gainers
United States Steel Corp. 57.91
Fluor Corp. 44.92
Cummins, Inc. 18.70
Shaw Group, Inc. 14.65
AK Steel Holding Corp. 14.58
Top Percentage Gainers
United States Steel Corp. 45.65%
Cummins, Inc. 39.94%
Halliburton Co. 34.94%
Fluor Corp. 31.82%
Shaw Group, Inc. 31.08%
Top Dollar Losers
DaimlerChrysler AG (Freightliner) -23.88
CNH Global NV -18.06
Oshkosh Truck Corp. -15.59
Terex Corp. -11.13
Centex Corp. -10.84
Top Percentage Losers
Centex Corp. -44.77%
Oshkosh Truck Corp. -42.97%
CNH Global NV -34.71%
Pulte Homes -33.81%
D.R. Horton, Inc. -31.11%
Source: Trade Trends, Inc., (509) 327-1279

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