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Construction Stock Index Frays Around The Edges

The Construction Stock Index faced huge swings in the last quarter as the bailout measures approached, then receded.

By Margot Crabtree, Trade Trends -- Construction, 11/10/2008

The credit crunch brought on by failing mortgages sent the entire economy into freefall as investment banks and other credit institutions began to fail during the quarter. As our session ended Sept. 30, 2008, massive volatility continued on Wall Street and globally after the U.S. House rejected the $700-billion bailout proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson and the White House. The Dow posted its third-largest one-day gain in history as the quarter ended, but that was preceded by the index's largest one-day drop the day before.

Stunned players on Wall Street expected light volume until a decision is made on the bailout. “I'm not getting the sense that investors are going to be jumping in with both feet until there is some kind of resolution on the plan,” said James Maguire, an NYSE floor trader with Christopher J. Forbes. “If there's a no vote, we're going to see a lower overall drift in stocks. It will be a slow bleed.”

The Construction Index began to look a little frayed around the edges as the index fell to its lowest level since December 2005. The index settled at 1883.27, a loss of 579.47 points, or 23.53 percent. Declining issues easily out-muscled advancing issues at a 23-to-7 count.

Even though Vulcan Materials' second-quarter results fell on high energy and lower volumes, results still exceeded analysts' expectations. Vulcan shares rose this quarter by 14.72 points, or 24.62 percent, after VMC and other building materials companies got a boost when the Fed rescued national mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. For the quarter ended June 30, Vulcan said it earned $140.8 million, or $1.27 per share, versus earnings of $142 million, or $1.45 per share in the year-ago quarter. Revenues rose to $1.02 billion, from $878.8 million. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected Vulcan to earn $1.10 per share with revenues of $1.07 billion.

It was a bad quarter for steel: U.S. Steel and AK Steel were both top losers in the index. AK Steel had a banner second quarter as its results sailed past expectations. AK Steel posted net income of $145.2 million, or $1.29 per share, compared to net income of $109.9 million, or $0.98 per share earned in the year-ago quarter. Net sales were up to $2.2 billion from the previous year's $1.87 billion. Analysts expected AKS to earn $1.15 per share on revenues of $2.1 billion. However, the company said it expects lower shipments in the third quarter because of seasonally lower demand and a planned five-day shutdown of its Middletown mill. Shares may also have fallen on a stronger dollar. Soleil Securities analyst Charles Bradford also pointed to a big sale of AKS stock by hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners. Harbinger owned about 10 percent of AKS but lowered its investment to about 4 percent. Also, a rumored sale to a Russian steelmaker never materialized. AK Steel fell 43.08 points, or 62.43 percent, and was the top percentage loser. AKS ended at 25.92.

U.S. Steel tumbled a whopping 107.17 points this trading session and was the top dollar loser. Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the steel sector to “neutral” from “attractive.” In a note to clients, the brokerage wrote, “Several of the typical risks to the steel cycle such as a rising US dollar, 'China fear' and sharply falling scrap prices have shaken investor confidence in sustainability of the steel cycle.” Even though Goldman Sachs maintained its “buy” rating on U.S. Steel, the brokerage took the company off its conviction buy list. U.S. Steel lost 58 percent and closed at 77.61.

Wells Fargo said it will take some charges from both the Fannie and Freddie bailout and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, but otherwise is faring better than many other financial institutions in the mortgage lending crisis. Wells Fargo was in talks to buy Wachovia before that bank's failure and at the end of September announced that it will increase its share buyback program by 25 million shares, increasing an earlier repurchase program of 75 million shares.

Robert W. Baird analyst David George upped his rating on Wells Fargo to “neutral” from “underperform,” giving a nod to Wells Fargo's strong bottom line. “We believe the challenges in the credit markets and weak capital positions of competitors will continue to result in significant new business opportunities for Wells Fargo, and think the company will come out of the current credit cycle with an improved customer and employee base,” George wrote in a note to clients. Wells Fargo increased 13.78 points, or 58.02 percent, and was the top percentage gainer. Wells Fargo ended at 37.53.

Exchange Ticker Symbol Company Name Price 12/30/2005 Price 9/30/2005 Net Change Percent Change 52-Week High 52-Week Low Shares Outstanding Market ($000) Capitalization
NYSE AKS AK Steel Holding Corp. 25.92 69.00 -43.08 -62.43% 73.07 22.54 112200 2908224
NYSE ASH Ashland, Inc. (APAC) 29.24 48.20 -18.96 -39.34% 68.99 26.93 63010 1842412.4
NYSE CAT Caterpillar, Inc. 59.60 73.82 -14.22 -19.26% 85.96 58.11 608720 36279712
NYSE CTX Centex Corp. 16.20 13.37 2.83 21.17% 30.75 10.91 123570 2001834
NYSE CVX Chevron Corp. 82.48 99.13 -16.65 -16.80% 104.63 76.40 2050000 169084000
NYSE CNH CNH Global NV 22.04 33.97 -11.93 -35.12% 70.00 18.98 237400 5232296
NYSE CMI Cummins, Inc. 43.72 65.52 -21.80 -33.27% 75.98 38.11 202700 8862044
NYSE DAI DaimlerChrysler AG (Freightliner) 50.50 61.67 -11.17 -18.11% 111.65 49.50 966430 48804715
NYSE DE Deere and Co. 49.50 72.13 -22.63 -31.37% 94.89 46.18 427010 21136995
NYSE DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. 13.02 10.85 2.17 20.00% 17.95 8.93 316610 4122262.2
NYSE EXP Eagle Materials, Inc. 22.37 25.33 -2.96 -11.69% 41.27 19.76 43490 972871.3
NYSE XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. 77.66 88.13 -10.47 -11.88% 96.12 71.51 5190000 403055400
NYSE FLR Fluor Corp. 55.70 93.04 -37.34 -40.13% 101.37 46.19 179000 9970300
NYSE GT Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 15.31 17.83 -2.52 -14.13% 31.36 14.16 241140 3691853.4
NYSE GVA Granite Construction Ltd. 35.82 31.53 4.29 13.61% 57.37 26.64 38280 1371189.6
NYSE HAL Halliburton Co. 32.39 53.07 -20.68 -38.97% 55.38 29.00 876880 28402143.2
NYSE IR Ingersoll-Rand Company Ltd. 31.17 37.43 -6.26 -16.72% 55.94 29.18 318530 9928580.1
NYSE KUB Kubota Corp. 31.40 35.79 -4.39 -12.27% 43.41 28.34 255520 8023328
NYSE MTW Manitowoc Company, Inc. 15.55 32.53 -16.98 -52.20% 51.49 15.02 130280 2025854
NYSE MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. 111.98 103.59 8.39 8.10% 144.28 90.05 41380 4633732.4
NYSE OSK Oshkosh Truck Corp. 13.16 20.69 -7.53 -36.39% 63.55 9.05 74530 980814.8
NASD PCAR Paccar, Inc. 38.19 41.83 -3.64 -8.70% 58.95 36.22 363350 13876336.5
NYSE PHM Pulte Homes 13.97 9.63 4.34 45.07% 17.32 8.20 257410 3596017.7
NYSE SGR Shaw Group, Inc. 30.73 61.79 -31.06 -50.27% 77.30 25.48 83470 2565033.1
NYSE TEX Terex Corp. 30.52 51.37 -20.85 -40.59% 90.75 28.22 97200 2966544
NYSE WFC Wells Fargo & Co. 37.53 23.75 13.78 58.02% 96.08 25.15 225900 8478027
NYSE X United States Steel Corp. 77.61 184.78 -107.17 -58.00% 196.00 68.62 117490 9118398.9
NASD RMIX US Concrete, Inc. 4.47 4.76 -0.29 -6.09% 8.38 2.14 39820 177995.4
NYSE USG USG Corp. 25.60 29.57 -3.97 -13.43% 40.54 23.12 99080 2536448
NYSE VMC Vulcan Materials Co. 74.50 59.78 14.72 24.62% 96.09 49.39 109830 8182335
Note: FLR had a 2:1stock split effective 7-16-08.

Price 9/30/2008 Price 6/30/2008 Net Change Percent Change
Construction Index 1883.27 2462.74 -579.47 -23.53%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 10850.66 11350.01 -499.35 -4.40%
S&P 500 Index 1164.74 1280.00 -115.26 -9.00%
NASDAQ Composite 2082.33 2292.98 -210.65 -9.19%
Top Gainers and Losers
$ Gainer Vulcan Materials Co. 14.72
$ Loser United States Steel Corp. -107.17
% Gainer Wells Fargo & Co. 58.02%
% Loser AK Steel Holding Corp. -62.43%
Advancers 7
Decliners 23

Top Gainers and Losers $ or %
Top Dollar Gainers
Vulcan Materials Co. 14.72
Wells Fargo & Co. 13.78
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. 8.39
Pulte Homes 4.34
Granite Construction Ltd. 4.29
Top Percentage Gainers
Wells Fargo & Co. 58.02%
Pulte Homes 45.07%
Vulcan Materials Co. 24.62%
Centex Corp. 21.17%
D.R. Horton, Inc. 20.00%
Top Dollar Losers
United States Steel Corp. -107.17
AK Steel Holding Corp. -43.08
Fluor Corp. -37.34
Shaw Group, Inc. -31.06
Deere and Co. -22.63
Top Percentage Losers
AK Steel Holding Corp. -62.43%
United States Steel Corp. -58.00%
Manitowoc Company, Inc. -52.20%
Shaw Group, Inc. -50.27%
Terex Corp. -40.59%
Source: Trade Trends, Inc., (509) 327-1279

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