ACP Pubs

Loren Faulkner

California Votes-In High Speed Train Measure
November 6, 2008

Proposition 1A, the $9.95 billion bond measure, received over 52 percent of the vote on Tuesday. It ushers in the beginning of a $45 billion +, ten year, 700 mile infrastructure construction project that promises 160,000 construction jobs.

If it works out just right, California’s Hi-Speed Rail Authority   www.californiahighspeedtrains.com says the completed 220 mph electric High Speed Trains will:

 
--Create 160,000 construction jobs and 450,000 permanent new jobs - American jobs that can't be outsourced.

--Take 92 million vehicle trips off of the road every year.

--Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 12 billion pounds a year.

--Reduce our dependence on foreign oil by up to 12.7 million barrels a year.

--Increase commerce and tourism throughout the state.

--Take travelers from the Bay Area to Southern California in 2+ hours, with stops in every major city on the way.

--Set the standard for fast, safe, and efficient transportation in the 21st century.

Added to that, they say over 100,000 passengers will be riding the rails each year by 2030.

Others aren’t so sure.

Adrian Moore, Ph.D., vice president of research at the Reason Foundation www.reason.org based in Los Angeles, is quoted on that think-tank’s website:

"The current high-speed rail plan is a fairy tale”… "The proposal suggests these high-speed trains will be the fastest ever; the most-ridden ever; the cheapest ever; and will convince millions of Californians they no longer need to drive or fly. Offering up a best-case scenario is one thing, but actually depending on all of these miracles to happen simultaneously is irresponsible public policy."

Proposition 1A (authorizes) $9.95 billion in bonds for a high-speed passenger train, but taxpayers should beware that this is just a fraction of the system's total price. The Rail Authority claims the first two phases of the system will cost $45 billion. But even that understates the total price.

With the high costs of building in California and the history of cost overruns on rail projects, the final price tag for the complete high-speed rail system will actually be $65 to $81 billion, according to the due diligence report. And while the Rail Authority forecasts between 65 and 96 million intercity riders by 2030, the due diligence report finds these projections are dramatically inflated. After compiling numerous rider-ship studies previously conducted for California rail systems, the study demonstrates the state can expect 23 million to 31 million riders a year in 2030.

Next Step

Federal funds will need to match State money, and private enterprise will also need to fill in the gap. Property along the 700 mile route will have to be purchased. The question is whether money will be forthcoming any time soon in light of current financial problems through-out the U.S.

But California is committed now. This site will keep tabs on the progress of the bullet train. I hope this train system proves that in this case the critics were wrong. But with California already in yet another big fiscal deficit this year, you wonder if all this will have to be put on hold…

What are your thoughts? Will the train system be built on time and on budget?

Posted by Loren Faulkner on November 6, 2008 | Comments (0)