US and Texas Economies Set for Long-Term Growth
WACO, TX The Perryman Group's latest economic forecasts for the U.S. and Texas call for moderate growth over the long-term horizon.
"There are several areas of concern and business cycles are inevitable, but on balance, I expect improvement in the years to come," said Dr. Perryman, President and CEO of The Perryman Group. "Looking out through 2040, my latest projections indicate that U.S. economic output will more than double from the current level."
Long-term growth in U.S. output (real gross product) is forecast to be about 3.08 percent per year, which would generate expansion of some $18.6 trillion and a 2040 level of $34.9 trillion. Employment is projected to grow by 1.46 percent per year during the period, resulting in expansion from 141.9 million to 204 million by 2040.
Even with lower oil prices, the Texas economy has proven to be resilient, and long-term growth prospects are favorable.
"Although I see significant risks from both domestic and international issues, Texas compares well with most areas in terms of the business climate, size of workforce, and other parameters, contributing to economic growth potential," said Dr. Perryman.
Output (real gross product) in Texas is projected to grow from about $1.5 trillion in 2015 to $3.5 trillion in 2040 (a 3.35 percent annual pace). Approximately 6.2 million net new jobs are expected to increase over the period, a 1.64 percent yearly pace. Texas job gains will be concentrated in the services and trade sectors, and the numbers of jobs in all major industry groups are forecast to rise.
"There will be business cycles and we have problems to deal with," said Dr. Perryman. "But over the long term, I expect relatively healthy growth for the U.S. and Texas."